Upstream M&A activity reached $43.1 billion in the second quarter of 2025, outpacing the prior four quarters. The top deal of the quarter was the XRG-led consortium bid for Santos for $18.7 billion. If concluded, it will be the largest deal so far in 2025 and the largest Asia-Pacific deal in several years. North American shale consolidation continued this quarter, with total regional deals topping $17.2 billion. Beyond the high-value transactions, several players advanced divestment targets, while strategic exploration farm-in deals and new acreage awards were also prominent.

Numerous host countries are tapping into a new exploration cycle before energy transition pressures resume, despite macroeconomic uncertainty and softer oil prices. A number of new bid rounds are now taking place or are planned for the near term. In North Africa, both Libya and Algeria launched new bid rounds for the first time in more than a decade, while West African producers Angola and Nigeria seek investors through improved terms and new acreage offerings. Other African and Asian players also hope to attract investors through forthcoming rounds, and industry stalwarts – US, Brazil and Norway – are expanding licensing areas.

Data from select European and Asian players shows a slowing of operational emissions performance in this latest Emissions Monitor. While only a partial performance benchmarking until full data reporting later this year, we expect to see a continued tapering off in improvement in operational emissions, in line with higher near-term production expectations. Broader changes in emissions abatement targets are evident, noting adjustments to Scope 3 targets by select firms, with updated summaries of emissions targets by the 34 companies under coverage. This update also adds two new Independent E&Ps to coverage: Australia’s Santos and US-based EOG Resources.

An updated dataset for the Emissions Monitor is now available. The Excel-based report provides detailed reported emissions data and emissions reduction targets for key oil and gas operating companies, covering both IOCs and NOCs. Included in this update: Scope 1+2 Total GHG Emissions data, Upstream Operational GHG Intensity data, Scope 3 End-Use GHG Emissions data, Total Operational Methane Emissions, Methane Emissions Intensity, and key Company Emissions Targets displayed in tables and charts.

Updated May 13, 2025: Competitive Intelligence Research has updated 2025 Guidance data for companies under coverage, noting key adjustments following Q1’25 earnings reports. The updated Excel-based report provides near and medium-term production and capital expenditure plans, as well as upstream, exploration and low-carbon spending details as available.

The upstream industry concluded $27 billion in M&A deals in Q1’25, helping push a continued multiquarter run of high-value North American shale consolidation. Major deals by Whitecap Resources, Diamondback Energy and Diversified Energy drove regional dealmaking to $22 billion for the quarter. Several firms also concluded planned divestments, helping to shore up balance sheets as wider market uncertainty grows. We expect M&A activity to slow in the near term as companies focus on more immediate cash flow preservation.

Expanding crude production capacity to 5 million b/d has long been a strategic priority for Adnoc, which is now nearing completion on or before its 2027 target. As a result, Adnoc has begun to direct upstream growth efforts towards increasing gas output to both boost exports and support national targets. It views unconventionals as a key growth segment. At the same time, XRG is spearheading a new era of international growth for Adnoc, with gas and chemicals making up the bulk of its growing portfolio.

Updated March 31, 2025: Competitive Intelligence Research has updated 2025 Guidance data for companies under coverage. The updated Excel-based report provides near and medium-term production and capital expenditure plans, as well as upstream, exploration and low-carbon spending details as available.

Competitive Intelligence Research is pleased to share the Executive Summary findings from this year's Top 100: Global NOC & IOC Rankings. Oil and gas remain central to the global energy complex’s growth story. The latest Energy Intelligence Top 100: Global NOC & IOC Rankings highlight the ongoing quest for growth and returns, even as upstream and downstream strategies among top players continue to evolve. Saudi Aramco, NIOC and CNPC retain their first, second and third spots. Exxon Mobil relinquished its No. 4 spot, which it had held for seven years, to Rosneft. Dramatic rankings movements were in shorter supply compared to last edition, hindered by fewer large deals closing in 2023. However, this will change in the next few editions. Still, the data reflects ongoing consolidation and strategic tensions among IOCs that include both shifting downstream priorities and the need to preserve upstream opportunities.

The upstream industry closed out 2024 with M&A deals totaling $128 billion, continuing a multiquarter run of high-value North American shale consolidation. Diamondback, Chesapeake and ConocoPhillips led the largest deals last year, pushing North American transactions to $115 billion in 2024 (on the back of a $202 billion high in 2023). For Q4’24, deals totaled $24.7 billion, with $21.2 billion from North America. Notably, several firms closed out long-planned divestments, helping boost Asian and Latin American regional spending.