Regulated carbon markets are expanding in number and scope. Their impact to date has been limited and at times counterproductive. But reforms to the EU and China’s schemes – and the impending introduction of schemes in Brazil and India – are adding to momentum. At the same time, recent declines in voluntary carbon market activity reflect the sector’s credibility issues. But we expect steady if unspectacular growth as challenges are overcome.

Energy Intelligence’s inaugural forecast of global nuclear power generation shows steady growth of ~2% per year through to 2050. However, nuclear’s share of total generation will likely fall and a so-called ‘nuclear Renaissance’ is unlikely. We expect nuclear power generation growth to be supported by technological improvements in nuclear fission, safety innovations and anticipation of higher baseload power generation demand, including from AI and data centers. But significant uncertainty remains for the sector’s outlook.

The One Big Beautiful Bil Act (OBBBA) enshrines the energy policy sea change under President Donald Trump. Low-carbon tax credits – like solar, wind and electric vehicles (EVs) – will be unwound more quickly or eliminated, hitting the beleaguered offshore wind and EV sectors hard. Yet, CCS tax credits were enhanced – boosting blue hydrogen – while nuclear, geothermal and sustainable aviation fuel credits were extended. In the traditional hydrocarbon space, the OBBBA mandates new leasing on federal lands, with a particular focus on Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. It also lowers royalty rates and restores the full intangible drilling cost deduction, providing a welcome boost to the oil industry.

The international geopolitical and economic order is changing. So, too, is the global energy system. These two trends are interdependent: Geopolitics is affecting the pace and shape of the energy transition, and the energy transition is recasting the international order. In this special report, Energy Intelligence explores how the energy transition is changing alliances, recalibrating trading patterns and supporting the rise of new powers. We consider whether the geopolitical reordering will speed or slow the transition. And we examine the strategic divergence of China, the EU and US as they respond to these intersecting trends. Finally, we offer specific recommendations to help companies, investors and governments navigate the increasingly complex geopolitics of energy.

Announced low-carbon spending by major energy companies was $5.7 billion in Q2’25. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved through the second quarter of 2025.

Announced deals by the 47 companies in the Low-Carbon Investment Tracker hit $5.7 billion in Q2’25. On a quarterly basis, this is the lowest level in the past five years. Petrobras’ new biofuel investments drove overall deal values this quarter, but low-carbon power generation deals continue to see declines due to rising cost pressures and the withdrawal of US policy support. Some $12 billion of “uncertain” deals, mostly offshore wind, are at risk of cancelation or divestment in our latest project-level analysis.

CCS and DAC have gained traction in recent years, with oil and gas firms keen to deploy existing competencies and create new low-carbon revenue streams. However, the CCS and DAC value chain has struggled to advance because of high costs and lingering technology problems. Policy support, carbon pricing and credits will be key to advance the industry. Energy Intelligence’s latest modeling shows that CCS costs should decline due to economies of scale and new capturing technologies. However, its decarbonization role will be limited to sectors, such as cement, where emissions are unavoidable and other abatement technologies do not exist.

EVs are set to continue growing rapidly through 2040, spurred by ever-cheaper batteries. China will continue to lead, followed by Europe, according to Energy Intelligence’s latest forecast. Stellar sales in China have prompted us to revise up our sales forecast there, which should offset headwinds elsewhere. We model three EV sales scenarios (covering five major auto markets). In our revised Core scenario, sales are projected to hit ~80% by 2040, leading to almost 46% of the LDV fleet being electrified. In all three scenarios, the total ICE vehicle fleet in these key markets is forecast to peak by 2027.

Announced low-carbon spending by major energy companies was $6.7 billion in Q1’25. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved through the first quarter of 2025.

Announced spending in the Low-Carbon Investment Tracker was $6.7 billion in Q1’25, the lowest level since Q4’20 amid elevated borrowing costs and heightened political, economic and financial uncertainty. Renewables investment remains the top project category for announced deals in Q1’25, with several key biofuel investments also noted. This quarter, we take a deeper dive into project status updates, as some $200 billion of Tracker deals are “proposed,” including almost $14 billion worth of “uncertain” projects we see as possible cancellations, many are of which are offshore wind projects.