The July 2025 update includes the latest on project developments, new long-term LNG supply agreements and links to relevant Energy Intelligence coverage.

We have updated our outlook for liquefaction FIDs in an already consequential year for new developments. We are also watching for moderating factors driving mid-summer market dynamics. In the Middle East, we examine differentiated but overlapping Gulf NOC strategies for building their LNG businesses.

Bullish gas and LNG market factors, including Middle East hostilities, have been mounting since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement roiled markets in April. The Israel-Iran conflict has market implications beyond Strait of Hormuz shipping concerns, while several other drivers are positioning the prices for greater volatility in H2’25. Contracting trends still reflect a highly competitive environment for suppliers along with emphasis on greater pricing visibility and stability.

US trade policy implications for global gas and LNG are this month’s focus, with two of our more pessimistic protectionist scenarios undermining the market. However, there are several trade elements that could encounter less impact than expected once we look beyond immediate volatility.

The April 2025 update includes the latest on project developments, new long-term LNG supply agreements and links to relevant Energy Intelligence coverage.

A disadvantaged European gas storage situation remains at the center of price direction. Asian LNG demand weakness, led by China, eases pressure on Europe for now as injection season gets underway. Long-term LNG supply agreements are lagging last year’s pace on the eve of the second quarter following a year where contracting trends were already shifting. Several factors could help restore the pace.

The market impact from a Russian pipeline gas revival could be quite dramatic if volumes materialize during the next LNG supply wave. A look at the high-profile uptick in interest in US LNG reveals it is not all about gaining favor with the Trump administration. Recent agreements facilitating monetization of Cypriot gas is important for the stakeholders, but less relevant for the broader LNG market.

The Trump administration’s impact on US LNG this year and implications for the broader LNG trade are front and center. Asian policy shifts are in greater focus as countries reconsider their relationships with gas and LNG. The European gas market is already off to a disadvantaged start in 2025, with consequences for prices this year. As we consider likely 2025 LNG project FIDs, our outlook is bright – but not without caution given lingering challenges as the supply landscape becomes more competitive.

Data and Graphs for LNG Supply/Demand Outlook to 2050

The early, rapid decline in European gas storage is setting the stage for a tighter market and higher LNG prices in 2025. This could weigh on demand in Asia ahead of the next LNG supply wave. Looking ahead to 2026-27 and beyond, even more new LNG supply could extend market weakness for several years.