Entering Plateau-ish Phase For US Oil Demand and Supply

Opec-Plus Continues Unwinding, But Watches/Hedges for Market Risks

Group strategy is likely to become more fluid, with the first tranche of voluntary cuts unwound this month. Yet the group will still likely take a more cautious approach, even with its consistently bullish view of demand. Its upcoming meeting, to be held among voluntary cut participants, may be used to open discussions on when the group can confidently begin unwinding its next phase of 1.66 million b/d voluntary cuts. A pause could follow if market conditions are not seen as conducive to short-term tapering, but we see any reversal of its new strategy to regain market share as unlikely.

Supply Side Adjusting Too Slowly to Market Imbalance

US-Russia to Meet, Oil Watches for Peripheral Supply Shifts

Refining Support for Oil Through Peak Summer, Some Tailwinds to Continue

Shale Patch Indicators Point to Softer than Expected Outlook, To Impact 2026+ Balances

Opec-plus’ strategy shift is expected to hold. As the pace of its supply addition has increased this phase of its strategy will be completed in September, raising questions on the group’s next moves as 2026 balances point to a large surplus. The group is fast approaching another critical juncture if markets move into oversupply next year, but we see any retreat in efforts to regain market share as unlikely. Looking ahead, cohesion may be brought back to the foreground if the group decides to pause once voluntary cuts are unwound.

Linking Short Term with Long Term Demand Prospects

Revert Back to Trade/Tariff Headlines, But More Muted Impact